LAS VEGAS - This spring could bring a turning point in the numbers game that has pitted the northern and southern regions of Nevada against each other for decades.
The once-a-decade reapportionment of state Assembly and Senate seats and redistricting of federal congressional seats might solidify the south's advantage, altering a 135-year-old balance of power.
Many politicians from Northern Nevada aren't happy about the prospect, but they know the best that they can do is blunt the impact of the changes.
The new federal census is driving the redistricting. By Nevada and federal law, the Assembly, Senate, Board of Regents and Board of Education seats have to be redrawn to account for the state's explosive population growth. At least one new federal congressional district is almost certain to be needed.
Most of the growth has come in Southern Nevada, so the voters in Clark County should see most of the benefit. Members of the Legislature from the rural central and northern parts of the state want to increase the number of seats in Carson City to keep some representation.
''If we don't increase the size of the Senate and the Assembly, the two rural seats are really going to be in jeopardy,'' said State Sen. Dean Rhoads, R-Tuscarora. ''My district goes from California to Utah. Having it much bigger than that would really be a tough one.''
The Assembly now has 42 members and the Senate 22; one plan advanced by ''the rurals'' would add four seats to the Assembly and two to the Senate.
Some lawmakers in the south say the north has had it easy for a long time. The Northern Nevada lawmakers have come and stayed, often for decades, in their seats in Carson City, allowing them to accrue seniority - and political power - disproportionate to their numbers.
State Sen. Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, said Southern Nevada - despite having more representatives in Carson City for more than two decades - has been historically shortchanged. UNLV, she said, only this year won funding parity with the older University of Nevada, Reno.
But beefing up the power of the southern bloc doesn't mean the rural areas or the Reno area will suffer, Titus said.
''Just because the urban south gets the number of representatives they deserve does not mean those representatives are going to be out to screw the rurals,'' she said.
Titus said too many people in the rural counties and the northwest see the south as a threat.
''The north is just obsessed with the south,'' she said.
Assembly Speaker Joe Dini, D-Yerington, argues that the south has for years gotten ''a proportionate share'' of the state's dollars.
''Their allocation is based on a formula, tried and true, that has been in place since '67,'' Dini said. ''In the Assembly, (southern representatives) control the major committees. The majority of committee members that control public policy are Clark County residents.''
About 70 percent of the state's 1.9 million residents live in Clark County.
Despite Southern Nevada's long-held dominance in population numbers, Northern Nevada's politicians still hold many of the top positions in the Legislature, especially in the Senate.
In the Democrat-dominated Assembly, the northern bloc controls the seats of the speaker and the minority leader and one assistant minority leader.
In the Assembly, the southerners have the minority whip and one assistant minority leader, and the majority leader, assistant majority leader, majority whip and assistant majority whip.
In the Republican-majority Senate, northerners include the majority leader, majority whip, assistant majority whip and president pro tempore.
Southerners include the assistant majority leader, minority leader, minority whip and assistant minority leader.
Eric Herzik, a UNR political science professor, has seen the debate over representation unfold over three decades. He thinks the south will likely dominate the key political positions after next year's reapportionment.
Behind the debate, he said, is the very different economics and cultures of three distinct areas - the diversified economy of Washoe County and Reno; the ranching and mining-based economies of the rural areas, which cover 75 percent of the state; and gambling-dependent, heavily urbanized Clark County.
The Washoe area and the rural counties each have about 15 percent of the state's population, with the rest concentrated in Clark County.
Herzik's UNR colleague Richard Siegel said the contrasts between the northeast and central parts of the state and Clark County are the most dramatic.
''We're the most urban state in the United States in terms of the percentage of people living in cities, but one of the most rural in terms of people per land area,'' he said.
So the people living hardscrabble in the Big Empty have very little in common with those who crowd into the southern corner of the state, said Siegel, a political science professor.
''The people who vote in Las Vegas are not that different than the people who vote in California,'' he said.
Las Vegas, Reno and Carson City are leading the way to becoming a ''more normal state,'' reflecting national political and social trends and values, he said.
But that isn't true for the rest of the state, where the social and cultural fabric is largely the same as it was decades ago.
''It's a time warp,'' he said. ''Outside of four or five large towns, there hasn't been a major change.''
The north is slow-growth, and more politically conservative; the south embraces nearly unchecked expansion and tends to lean toward Democratic politics, Herzik said.
If the Senate stays the same size, reapportionment will mean one senator for the entire rural part of the state, he said. They now have three.
''It's not a comfortable position to be in, but politically it's a reality,'' Herzik said. ''The challenge for Clark County is to use the power equitably and wisely.''
Robert Erickson, research director for the state's Legislative Counsel Bureau, has to provide the numbers to the Legislature, where the ultimate decisions will be made.
''There's a lot of issues here,'' Erickson said. ''Most people think that it's a recent thing that Clark County has had over half the population of the state, but it's been over 40 years.''
Redrawing the district for the state Legislature is only part of the battle. Carving out another congressional seat for the U.S. House of Representatives also will be tough, he said.
Republicans from the north are likely to support a plan that would dilute the power of southern Democrats. Those from the Las Vegas area, such as Titus, want to see those congressional seats more firmly in the hands of the south.
Erickson said his agency has a few guidelines to work with.
''You try not to bust up a county and community,'' he said. ''You try not to fragment whatever might constitute a 'community of interest.' ''
Compactness is another consideration, Erickson said. That issue has gotten other states in trouble with federal courts in the past, especially when districts are designed to give an advantage to one ethnic voting bloc over others.
State Sen. Bill Raggio, R-Reno and majority floor leader, said he doesn't believe it will be as contentious as some predict.
''It shouldn't be too difficult,'' he said. ''There will be some scuffling ... Obviously, Clark County is going to gain some seats and (the north) will lose some seats.''
But ''most legislators look at the interests of the state as a whole ... I don't think there's going to be too much argument.''
