Stakes are high for first debate, with 5 weeks to go

SARASOTA, Fla. - Barefoot on the beach, Al Gore offered a picture of nonchalance before Tuesday night's high-stakes debate. George W. Bush's camp also portrayed an assured candidate who planned to relax, jog, maybe even nap, before the confrontation.

But there was no mistaking the importance of the first presidential debate of campaign 2000 - 90 minutes before a national television audience likely to exceed 50 million, the largest for any single campaign event this season.

Gore wasn't talking publicly. Wife Tipper, asked what to expect, said, ''I just look for him to be relaxed and be able to make his points with ease.''

Bush, on his way to the Boston debate site, stopped in West Virginia and said voters there could produce an Election Day surprise for Gore. The Texas governor had little to say about the debate, but aides said he intended to ''talk about why his proposals are better.''

Both men had spent the weekend cramming and holding practice sessions, Gore in Florida, Bush in Texas.

Polls show the White House race even, the tightest in decades, making the three televised debates over the next three weeks - plus one between vice presidential nominees Joseph Lieberman, the Democrat, and Republican Dick Cheney - potentially crucial opportunities for either side to break away.

By now, five weeks before the election and after a year and a half of campaigning by Bush and Gore, the potholes each faces are familiar terrain. Political pros agree:

- Bush must avoid foul-ups in wording (such as ''subliminable'') and bury skepticism that he might not have the intellectual heft to be president, all the while letting his charm shine through.

''America will see a man that's a serious man, a man that understands government, he understands governance. They'll see a man who is prepared to lead this great country,'' Bush campaign chairman Don Evans predicted on NBC's ''Today.''

- Gore, who has been staging mock debates under a massive model shark at Mote Marine Laboratory in Florida, cannot afford self-aggrandizing exaggeration (as in, ''I took the initiative in creating the Internet''), mean attacks or smarty-pants condescension.

''Al Gore the policy wonk has to show that he's engaging and likable,'' said Brookings Institution fellow Stephen Hess. ''George W. Bush the likable and engaging character has to show he can be a policy wonk.''

Gore has signaled that he intends not to go on the attack, a change in tone that he hopes will make him more likable to swing voters. It is perhaps instructive that Gore collared Mote's stuffed shark with a farm harness - a lucky charm since his 1992 debate rehearsals - brought from Tennessee.

Gore has also been working here in Florida with 13 ''real people'' he met along the campaign trail on a more conversational speaking style.

''I think our opponent is a likable, engaging fellow, there's no question about that,'' Tipper Gore said Monday on ABC's ''Good Morning America.'' ''I hope it's not going to be based on likability.''

Bush, a senior adviser said, was polishing several ''crisp lines of attack'' and has a plan to combat any Gore plan to plant his ''real people'' debate coaches in the audience.

A Pew poll showed that just over four in 10 voters say they are very likely to tune in Tuesday night, while just over half say they are only somewhat likely or not likely to watch.

That's about the same level as in 1996, when 46 million watched President Clinton's first debate with Bob Dole, but lower than in 1992, when voter interest in the election was high and some 70 million watched the presidential debates.

Clinton, who planned to tune in from a hotel suite in Coral Gables, Fla., where he would be raising money for congressional Democrats, weighed in on the expectations game.

Clinton, according to White House spokesman Jake Siewert, ''said just this morning that if the vice president can do what he did in the convention speech, which is lay out his vision for the future, his plans for the future, that the vice president will prevail in those debates.''

To help voters see things their way, both candidates were to have teams of high-powered supporters on hand to explain how they had won.

A slew of Cabinet officials and congressional leaders were headed to Boston to vouch for Gore. Officials making the case for Bush were to include Republican Govs. John Engler of Michigan, Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, Paul Cellucci of Massachusetts, Jeb Bush of Florida, Mark Racicot of Montana, George Pataki of New York and Jim Gilmore of Virginia.