LOS ALAMOS, N.M. - Shawn Mills looked at the blackened hills across from her two-story home, shook her head, and cast her eyes to the ground.
''That mountain is going to come down, I know it,'' she said. ''It's going to be like a California mudslide when the monsoon season comes.''
Los Alamos, in the forested mountains of central New Mexico, was attacked last month by one of the largest wildfires in New Mexico history. Now it is threatened by what could be some of the state's worst flooding when the region's rainy season begins in July.
The wildfire that raged through the part of the city destroyed more than 200 homes and turned the once-green hills a stone's throw from Mills' neighborhood into an ashen wasteland. The mountain slopes are bare, and the grasses and shrubs that residents once relied on to help control water runoff have been reduced to ash.
''A fire that burns like this causes hydrophobic conditions ... water repellant soil,'' said Wayne Patton, a fire rehabilitation expert with the U.S. Forest Service. ''The water beads up on soil like on a car that's been waxed and just rolls away.''
So, homes like Mills' that survived the fire in Los Alamos and nearby White Rock are now open to flooding and mudslides. The threat is so serious that the Federal Emergency Management Agency is urging homeowners to purchase national flood insurance.
''We're concerned,'' FEMA spokesman Brad Craine said.
The Los Alamos area averages about 8.8 inches of rain from July through September - nearly half its annual precipitation, according to the National Weather Service.
Fire crews are frantically trying to replant the slopes surrounding Los Alamos before the rains come. They also are conducting aerial seed drops onto the watershed to quicken the grass-growing.
But it takes the fastest-growing seeds at least two weeks to begin sprouting after the first good rain - if they are not washed away first. Straw is used to absorb moisture and keep seeds from being washed down the steep slopes.
Patton said computer models have predicted the possibility of extensive flooding in the area, especially for neighborhoods in the hills and in the canyons below. He said fire officials are working with local authorities to set up an early warning system.
''It's like a toss of the dice,'' Patton said. ''Some of these areas are going to be at risk. It's a 50 percent chance of happening.''
In the meantime, dozens of fire crews armed with chainsaws, pick axes and hoes have been felling burned trees inside the forest in an effort to divert the expected water flows.
Doug DeMoss, a tree cutter with the U.S. Forest Service, had just felled a giant pine that was charred from top to bottom.
As soon as the tree hit the ground, firefighters chopped it into smaller pieces and buried the trunk lengthwise to serve as a sluice.
''We try to pick spots where we think the water will run down,'' DeMoss said. ''We try to log in spots where it can stop erosion and stop up big gullies.''
The ash-covered forest floor also is littered with car-sized boulders and downed trees as long as utility poles. If there are mudslides, the trees and boulders could be hurled down the hills.
In southern New Mexico, recent thunderstorms caused heavy flooding and mudslides on charred hillsides of the Sacramento Mountains. With much of the vegetation burned away from a 16,000-acre fire there, the water moved quickly downhill, taking mud and ash with it. The resulting mudslides left debris that caused the temporary closure of several highways.
Mills isn't taking any chances. Her family has bought sand bags and hay bales to protect their home from a possible deluge.
The fire burned down the house next door, and the heat was so intense, it bubbled the paint on her house and melted some of her outside fixtures.
''A lot of people don't believe a flood is going to happen,'' Mills said. ''They're totally in denial. They didn't believe a fire would hit, either.''
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On the Net: U.S. Forest Service: http://www.fs.fed.us
National Weather Service: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq
