"Compared to what?" might be the
question for those curious about the direction
of the northern Nevada economy during
2003.
Unemployment in the Reno area is at its
lowest level since 2003. The number of jobs
in the region grew a development that
ran counter to the experience of most places
across the United States. People from out
of state continued to flock to the region,
bringing with them capital and an appetite
to buy new homes.
So why do so many businesspeople in
northern Nevada express vague misgivings
about the condition of the region's economy?
Analysts at the state Department of
Employment, Training and Rehabilitation
suggest that Nevadans grew so accustomed
to the phenomenal boom of the 1990s that
mere growth is a letdown.
"It should be remembered that the
1990s were probably a once-in-a-lifetime
boom," the state analysts wrote this
autumn. "The business cycle still exists, and
the economy is undergoing the inevitable
adjustments."
Those adjustments haven't proven to
be particularly painful in northern
Nevada.
The jobless rate in the Reno area in
November was 3.7 percent. In Carson
City, the jobless rate of 4.3 percent in
October was the lowest figure in two
years.
More important, the Reno area added
4,400 jobs in the last 12 months a
growth rate of 2.5 percent.
While that's well below the 5 percent
and 6 percent annual growth rates in
employment posted in the 1990s, it's still
nothing to sneeze at. The national economy,
after all, recorded nearly 1 percent
decline in the number of jobs this year.
The trend probably will continue into
2003.
The Western Blue Chip Economist
Forecast produced by Arizona State
University found that Nevada's economy
was one of the few bright spots in the
West during 2002 and projects that the
state will be even stronger this year
The growth in jobs, however, hasn't
been evenly distributed. Jobs in basic
industries manufacturing, mining and
the like grew by 0.8 percent in
Washoe County in the last year, and
those figures were supported largely by a
3.8 percent increase in the number of
construction jobs.
The growth of manufacturing and
distribution jobs probably will remain
sluggish during this year as major
national companies put expansion plans
on hold as a result of the weak U.S.
economy.
The growth in service jobs, however,
reflects the other great force driving the
region's economy population growth
that ran far above national averages.
The Census Bureau reported last
week that Nevada's population growth
rate of 3.6 percent from the middle of
2001 to the middle of 2002 was more
than triple the national rate. In fact,
Nevada has led the nation in population
growth rate for each of the past 16 years.
Those new residents many of them
retired or bringing their own jobs with
them create a demand for everything
from physicians to store clerks.
One big piece of the services sector in
northern Nevada gaming and tourism
is likely to continue its struggle.
Casinos will face new competition from
Indian gaming in California while the
national economic malaise and post-
Sept. 11 fears dampen tourist traffic.
