Here's the single most important number to the northern Nevada economy next year: 3.2 percent.
That's the preliminary estimate of next year's job growth in Nevada from economists at the state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.
Like Reggie Jackson with the Yankees baseball team of the 1970s, job growth in the region's economy continues to be the straw that stirs the drink.
New jobs bring demand for new houses and apartments.
Stores open.
And even more new jobs are created to serve those who just took new jobs themselves.
While this year's job growth in the Reno area 3.1 percent in the 12 months ended in October may look relatively lackluster in a region that posted annual growth of 5 percent or more in the late 1990s, take a look at a couple of comparisons:
* In the past 12 months, Nevada has ranked tops in the nation in job creation, and the Reno growth rate is almost identical to the average for the state.
* While northern Nevada and the state have been growing, the number of jobs in the United States declined by 0.2 percent in the past 12 months.
* Even though a 3 percent growth rate doesn't look huge, the effects of compounding mean it would double the region's job base in about two decades.
As economists across the nation predict that 2004 will bring the end to what's been dubbed "the jobless recovery," the question is how much more momentum the northern Nevada economy will gain if the national economy picks up steam.
The Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast published by Arizona State University projects Nevada and Arizona next year will continue to post the strongest employment gains in the West.
Already, folks who work with companies moving with the area are scrambling to keep up, says Chuck Alvey, president and chief executive officer of the Economic Development Authority of Northern Nevada.
Some of that activity, he says, comes from the much-publicized effort to woo California companies to Nevada.Other inquiries come as national companies that delayed plans for an increased West Coast presence regain confidence in the economy.
This month, at least nine companies were scouting northern Nevada for a total of 3.2 million square feet of industrial or distribution facilities, says Mike Hoeck, a senior associate with Colliers International in Reno.
For perspective, that 3.2 million square feet would be roughly four times more than all the industrial space built in the region in the past 12 months.
Political considerations are likely to keep the national economy strong through the year, Alvey predicts.
"Every year there's a presidential election, they find a way that the economy gets better," he says.
Although much of the continued growth of the region's economy comes from job growth, retirees migrating from other regions of the country play a key role, too.
Harry York, chief executive officer of the Reno-Sparks Chamber of Commerce, says the decision of Del Webb to develop approximately 850 homes at Somersett in west Reno may prove to be a watershed event in the area's economic history.
"People are moving here with more money than in the past," York says.
The target demographic of Del Webb it calls them "active adults" may want the sorts of restaurants and entertainment often found in redeveloped downtown districts, York says, and may spur those efforts in Reno.
The effects of job creation and migration by retirees will ripple throughout the region's economy in 2004, and some of the ripples will be big.
Some 2.7 million square feet of new retail space is on the drawing boards in the Reno area alone, says Roxanne Stevenson, vice president of the retail services group of Grubb and Ellis Nevada Commercial Group.
That's equal to about a quarter of all the retail space already in the area.
And the housing boom will continue.
Ted Stoever II, who specializes in residential land at Colliers International, projects permits for 4,400 homes will be issued around Washoe County next year an increase of about 300 from this year's already hot pace.
But that will barely keep up with demand, says Mark Krueger, a senior advisor for land at Grubb and Ellis Nevada Commercial Group.
With waiting lists of homebuyers extending six months or more into the future, Krueger says homebuilders probably could stay busy through this year just meeting the needs of families already in the market for a house.
But continued low interest rates will continue to draw families into the newhome market who otherwise might continue to rent, Krueger says.
