Moderate 20-year growth expected for Carson

Usually when newcomers ask real-estate agent Kit Weaver to find them a home in Carson City, it doesn't take long for them to change their minds.

"They insist on living in Carson City," Weaver said. "I show them some prices and they say 'whoops, that's ridiculous.' So, the next step is, we go to Dayton."

It happens often. When Weaver, the former assessor for Carson City, started selling houses last year, he didn't know much about Dayton. Now, he does.

"If there were more lots available, more families would be able to buy houses and move into Carson City," Weaver said. "But the values of property have gone up about 20 percent in the last few years. That's killing the market in Carson City for anybody who doesn't have plenty of money."

With few affordable homes and with a small number of expensive lots for sale, Carson City is expected to add an average of only 500 residents a year. By 2024, the county is expected to reach 65,600 residents.

The estimates, released this week by state demographer Jeff Hardcastle, may be good news for homeowners who could see property values continue to climb. It's also good news to city planners and utility districts who were expecting as many as 80,000 residents with water, sewer and infrastructure needs - a larger jump from its current population of 55,600.

But it's bad news for schools.

"When you don't have a lot of growth, it means your fixed costs are continuing to go up, but you're not getting additional income," said Carson City School Superintendent Mary Pierczynski. "There's not a lot of extra money."

The school district receives funds from the state for each student enrolled.

The district would not build new schools and may need to make cutbacks in other areas, Pierczynski said. Last year, the district lost students for the first time since 1982, decreasing by 35 students.

Mayor Ray Masayko said the growth numbers are good and bad. With few places for people to live in Carson, many workers will commute into the city and require better and bigger roads and more infrastructure.

"It may mean a different way of looking at things," Masayko said.

City homeowners should expect values to rise, but so will the assessed values and property taxes, Masayko said. The city uses population estimates to determine how to plan city services, such as water and sewer.

Carson City caps the number of new residences that can be built at 3 percent a year, but the limit has never been reached.

The city might start looking at asking the federal government to redesignate land within the city to allow more residential building, and start encouraging more urban renewal projects and multi-family housing, Masayko said.

City utility plans are anticipating up to 80,000 residents by 2025. If fewer residents relocate to the city, plans can be pushed back for new projects, said Utilities Manager Tom Hoffert. The city has enough water rights to meet the needs of up to 75,000 residents.

"It would be putting less stress on existing facilities, potentially extending useful life a little bit," Hoffert said.

Carson City will continue to act more as an employment hub for the surrounding communities in the next 20 years, Hardcastle said.

Northern Nevada continues to diversify the economy, bringing in industry and housing, while Southern Nevada is creating jobs in the hotel, gaming and resort industry, Hardcastle said.

Washoe County's population is estimated to jump 29 percent. The largest growth is anticipated in rural Lyon County where growth is anticipated to jump 80 percent. The state's population is expected to reach over 3 million, with a 59 percent growth rate.

Contact Jill Lufrano at jlufrano@nevadaappeal.com or 881-1217.

2024 POPULATION ESTIMATES

Carson City: 65,628 (up 19%)

Churchill County: 36,542 (up 42%)

Clark County: 2,751,082 (up 70%)

Douglas County: 61,652 (up 35%)

Lyon County: 74,281 (up 80%)

Storey County: 3,133 (down 16%)

Washoe County: 482,878 (up 29%)

State total: 3,625,482 (up 59%)

* Elko, Esmerald, Eueka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Mineral, Pershing and White Pine counties are expected to lose population