New statistical tool seeks to measure regional outlook

Lorna Shepard, who relies heavily on research in her job as vice president and director of account planning at the Rose/Glenn Group in Reno, long has been frustrated by the dearth of economic statistics about the Reno market.

She's addressed her frustration, and she'll roll out a new index of business sentiment during the 13th annual Directions 2005 event this week.

Working with David Line, president of the Reno-based market research firm InfoSearch, Shepard developed an e-mail survey that she hopes to conduct twice a year to chart the outlook for the region's economy.

The survey's first round, conducted in December, drew 301 responses almost evenly split among small,medium and large businesses.

In the 41-question survey, business owners and managers were asked about their current outlook on subjects such as hiring and capital expenditures as well as their expectations for the next year.

By comparing the current outlook with businesses' projections, Shepard hopes to create a snapshot of economic expectations something like a Dow Jones Industrial Average for the regional economy.

That, she says,will fill a gap in knowledge of the local economy.

Data on the national economy is abundant, but Nevada's fast-growing economy is filled with peculiarities that aren't apparent in the national figures.

The state, meanwhile, collects data such as unemployment and taxable sales, and studies such as the Business Builders program of the Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada collects valuable observations from business owners.

"But there just isn't any quantitative data about the economy,"Shepard says.

She hopes to conduct surveys each spring and autumn beginning a couple of months from now so observers can watch the change in business sentiment over time.

Line and Shepard donated their time to establish the new statistical tool.

Shepard says the collection of data was fairly inexpensive.

The survey was distributed via e-mail to about 2,800 persons.

"The back end is what's somewhat costly," she says, as InfoSearch assembled and crunched the data.

The developers hope to widen participation in the survey and also hope they ultimately can find financial support to continue the work.

The Directions 2005 event where Shepard and Line will roll out the new survey is Friday at the Reno Hilton from 7 a.m.

to noon.