Elko disputes state's demographic projections

When the Nevada state demographer's office put out its long-range population forecast recently, not everyone in the state was in agreement especially some people in Elko County, which is projected to see its population decline by the year 2026.

Elko County presently has some 48,000 people, but the state projects that only 42,000 will reside there in another 20 years. The city of Elko has approximately 20,000 residents.

"We had seen the numbers when the draft first came out several months ago," says Elaine Barkdull, who heads up economic development efforts in Elko County. "We didn't agree then and we don't agree now."

Barkdull attempted to contact State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle to convey her disagreement with the forecast that 6,000 fewer people will live in Elko County in 20 years.

A subsequent press release that was picked up by the state's major newspapers, she says, sent shock waves through her community.

"We have made great strides in pushing to diversify our economic base so as not to be so dependent upon the mining industry," says Barkdull. "But when that press release was picked up by the Reno Gazette-Journal, we had a lot of prospective developers and investors who have expressed interest in what we are doing call and ask what was happening."

She says the most interest in Elko comes from investors and developers in San Francisco, Las Vegas and Reno.

Barkdull says, for instance, an individual in Elko County has been working on a 260-acre industrial park project between Elko and Carlin along Interstate 90.

"When that article came out, he had trouble getting his investor on board. I've spent a lot of time fielding such phone calls. We do have a problem with Jeff's doom-and-gloom projections for rural communities, and I think it's because he doesn't spend enough time out here, and he certainly doesn't talk to me."

Hardcastle says he understands there are economic diversification efforts occurring in several counties. He singles out Humboldt, Elko and Mineral counties, which he says are taking steps that could alter the long-term population projections.

"That's why we do this every two years," he says. "The purpose is to give the State Legislature some population figures to help with preparation of the state's budget and other planning purposes."

He acknowledges that some rural counties where mining has been the dominant economic force for years now are in the initial stages of trying to transform their economic base.

"The long-term projections for those counties may not happen," he says. "We'll look at them again in two years."

Elko's Barkdull eschews the label of a rural community.

"We're not rural, we are a micropolitan community that is self-sustaining," she says. "We serve an area within a 200-mile radius, we have a wonderful college, a regional airport, a hospital and now we will have this railport that will over time broaden the economic base of this county. We have approved tax increment financing to make major improvements downtown and we know what we want this town to look like in 20 years, and it isn't anything like Jeff's projection."

While she understands that population projections tend to fall back on historical mining data, she says too many rural counties are often discounted.

"People need to come here, put their feet on the ground and take a look at what is happening, and talk with those people who are deeply involved in planning for the future," she says.

As for the potential for mining downturns, Barkdull acknowledges that some mines close if falling prices make their operation unprofitable.

"But the good mines never shut down," she says. "They will sometimes hire fewer people, especially when prices are lower, and they may halt exploration for awhile, but there is far less volatility here with the mining industry than some other types of manufacturing in other communities."

The regional railport, she says, will dramatically alter the county's economic base as it will provide a hub for intermodal movement of equipment and products adjacent to an industrial park where new businesses can be sited and grow.

"The railport is in design phase right now," says Barkdull. "TranSystems out of Oakland received the contract for that. Then we'll have the basic trans-load facilities and structures built the track, the warehouse and possibly some offices. At that point, we are going to lease it to a professional trans-load company who will come in and run it as their own. The county is looking at a 30-year lease."

As for the industrial park that will likely be built on 350 acres, it will be sold to a professional industrial developer. "The county figures an industrial developer can move more quickly than we could operating it ourselves," she says.

"Nevada only has a handful of options for growth, and for years that has been Reno and Las Vegas,"

Barkdull says. "Well, Elko is going to become the third option. Look where we are. It's all here. There is widespread interest in developing planned communities here. You cannot buy a house in Elko. We don't have the inventory. If that isn't growth, I don't know what is."