As 2007 begins to unfold, everyone from executives of big homebuilding firms to proprietors of little shops in neighborhood centers will keep a close eye on the job numbers in northern Nevada.
The growth in employment particularly the sorts of jobs that bring fresh dollars into the region's economy fueled the five-year boom in northern Nevada.
The growth in employment appears likely to continue into 2007, although some observers have nagging worries about the effects of a housing slowdown.
Statewide, economists at the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation project that employment will grow at a 5 percent pace in 2007.
Assuming that number holds true for northern Nevada historically, it has it translates into a continuation of good times for another year.
In October, total employment in Washoe County stood at 231,400. That marked a 3.9 percent increase from the employment of 222,800 a year earlier.
Employment in Carson City in October was up by 400 from year-earlier figures, a 1.2 percent increase.
"It means the economy is doing well," says Bill Anderson, the chief economist for the state employment department, noting that job growth in the late 1990s typically ran about half the current pace.
A 5 percent increase in employment in 2007 would translate into more than 11,000 new jobs in the Reno-Sparks region jobs that translate into new workers, new consumers, new homebuyers for the region.
"Job growth means that more and more people are discovering the benefits and quality of life we have in this region which creates new residents, and a natural outcome of that is a healthy real estate market," says Dennis Wilson, president of the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors.
For the health of the economy, the best new jobs are those that bring new dollars into the region jobs such as those in manufacturing, where products from northern Nevada are sold around the world.
Manufacturing added about 200 jobs in the Reno-Sparks area in the 12 months ending in October. Professional and business services, another category that can draw fresh dollars into the economy, grew by about 1,700 jobs during the 12-month period.
That flow of new manufacturing and distribution jobs is likely to continue as companies scout northern Nevada for locations.
"The pipeline is very strong right now," says Jeff Brigger, business development manager for the Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada, an agency that seeks to develop new jobs in the region.
Industrial companies looking at the region, he says, cover a wide range of sizes and types.
Another hint about the future is seen in the surge of construction of big new industrial buildings, most of them speculative projects developed in anticipation of employers coming to the region.
But a traditional underpinning of the region's economy tourism and gaming continues to lose jobs. Employment at casino hotels in Washoe County, for instance, was down by 600 jobs in October from a year earlier.
Jim Shabi, an economist with the state employment department, says he's keeping a close eye on construction employment particularly in the residential sector as the year unfolds.
Construction employment has grown by 6.5 percent in the Reno-Sparks area in the past 12 months, even with the slowdown in residential building, and construction accounted for about one of out five new jobs in the area.
"Housing is still the big wild card," Shabi says, noting that a continued slump could begin to ripple into retail and other sectors that depend on construction workers' incomes.
But a booming job market also means employers will continue to face strong competition for well-skilled workers, says Tina Grefrath, center manager for Nevada JobConnect in Reno.
That means employers can expect more turnover as workers have opportunities to move to higher-paying jobs, she says.
"It doesn't seem to be slowing down at all," Grefrath says. "I don't think we're going to see even a blip in northern Nevada. It's a tremendous engine that keeps going."
