Randall Todd doesn't want anyone to panic, but he has a couple of numbers for business executives to begin thinking about: If an avian flu pandemic arises next winter and that's still a big "if" businesses could face the likelihood that 40 percent of their staffs will be taken ill.
And each of those sick workers could be off the job for two weeks, says Todd, the director of epidemiology and public health awareness with the Washoe County District Health Department.
Those statistics, in turn, raise a host of questions for Todd and others thinking about a flu pandemic.
Can grocery stores stay open if their employees are sick? Who will drive the trucks to keep northern Nevada supplied? How much work can people do at home to reduce their contact with other people? Todd is the first to acknowledge that he doesn't have all the answers.
Instead, the health department will turn to businesses this summer as it hurries up its planning for the possibility of a widespread flu outbreak next winter.
"We're here from the government, and we're here to help you help yourselves," Todd said last week.
Even before health officials begin meeting with business executives, some of the key messages the health department will deliver in case of a widespread outbreak have big implications for business.
One of the messages will be "social distancing" and the need to reduce contact between people, said Judy Davis, the health department's public information officer.
Social distancing includes avoiding crowds no trips to the mall, no nights out on the town as well as reducing contacts with co-workers.
The health department, Davis said, also will be encouraging employers and their staffs to figure out how much work could be done from home.
While the health department sorts through the implications of widespread illness in businesses, Todd said it's possible that health officials will set up meetings with representative of economic sectors ranging from retailing to public utilities.
Early contacts with companies that are planning for the possibility of a pandemic already have raised some questions, he said.
For instance: A company with facilities in Reno began thinking about what it would do if schools were closed to lessen spread of the virus.
Executives decided they might set up a company-operated daycare center a possibility that worries health officials because the center, in turn, might contribute to the spread of the flu.
The Centers for Disease Control prepared a list of three dozen issue for businesses to be thinking about, everything from the effects of a pandemic on sick-leave policies to the need to identify key suppliers who might be affected.
(The full checklist is at www.pandemicflu.gov.)
"We want them to think about it," Todd said.
"We don't want people to panic, but we do want people to be prepared."
At a session with community leaders last week, health and emergency-services officials said there's no way of predicting whether a virus that's killing birds worldwide will migrate into humans.
And until the virus migrates, they said, researchers can't begin work on a vaccine.
That means that the effects on businesses and other organizations likely will be nastiest during the first wave of a flu pandemic when a vaccine hasn't been developed.
Past flu outbreaks including a 1918 outbreak that killed more than 40 million worldwide as well as a lesser pandemic in 1968 have broken in several waves over as long as a year.
Assuming a vaccine can be developed, county health officials are developing a volunteer-staffed system that could deliver vaccines to 100 percent of the population including 20,000 visitors at 17 sites within 72 hours.
