Population figures show strength of area economy

The new population estimates released by the state demographer's office last week provide a clear commentary on the region's economy as well as the area's attraction to retirees.

And they give heart to those who believe that the soft real estate market is about to firm.

The figures prepared by State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle estimate that Washoe County's population stood at 409,844 last July 1.

That's an annual growth rate of 3.1 percent a little slower than the 3.5 percent rate that Hardcastle estimated a year earlier, but a figure that still translates into more than 12,000 new residents in one year.

Lyon County, meanwhile, posted a year-over-year population growth of 10.6 percent that's an additional 5,200 people in a largely rural county and was by far the fastest growing county in the state. Carson City's population grew by an estimated 1 percent, and Douglas County was up by 3.3 percent.

To put those figures into context, the U.S. population growth rate was estimated at something less than 1 percent .91 percent, to be precise last year.

The biggest reason for the population increase in northern Nevada? Jobs, says Hardcastle.

In July, the month in which Hardcastle takes his population snapshot, employment in Washoe and Storey counties stood at 226,700 an increase of more than 9,000 jobs from a year earlier.

Because workers commute to jobs at Sparks, Reno and Storey County's Tahoe Reno Industrial Center from neighborhoods around the region, that job growth also translates into higher population in Lyon and Douglas counties as well as Carson City.

The demographer digs a little deeper, too, using federal statistics which capture the number of self-employed people who aren't part of the state employment figures.

Those statistics, he says, also point to strong job creation and rising population.

A trickier proposition, Hardcastle says, is attempting to estimate the number of retirees who are moving to the area from California and elsewhere in the nation.

One good indicator, he says, is the number of housing units in the region a number that can be tracked through building permits. After all, the demographer reasons, even if they don't work, retirees need to live somewhere.

He's also paying increased attention to a dusty little statistic collected by the State Department of Motor Vehicles the number of people who voluntarily turn in their drivers license.

About 10 to 11 percent of that number usually represents seniors who believe they're too old to drive safely, Hardcastle says, and tracking the figure gives a hint at the number of retirees in the area.

Whether they're working or retired, a growing population means continued strong demand for housing. Using the rule of thumb that Washoe County households average about three people each, a population increase of 12,000 people translates into a need for 4,000 new housing units.

But housing analysts predict that builders probably will start construction on only 2,500 homes in the Reno-Sparks area this year and the number of unsold homes in subdivisions is estimated at less than 1,000.

Continued population growth, then, could soak up unsold inventories of new homes fairly quickly, says Bambi Spahr, executive director of the Builders Association of Northern Nevada.

"Clearly, the more people that move to our area, the more demand there will be for housing," she says.

The annual population estimates prepared by Hardcastle are commissioned by the state Department of Taxation which uses them to divvy up revenues between cities and counties.