I have good jobs news, and I have bad jobs news. The good news last year was very bad as related to Nevada's workforce. The bad news it is going to get worse.
Consider this (from Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation):
* In 2007, 1,538,000 Nevadans were employed.
* In 2008, 30,763 of that total lost jobs.
* In 2009, another 117,705 lost jobs.
* In 2010, it is projected that still another 65,000 jobs will be lost (25,000 were lost in January alone).
* In 2011, it is projected that an additional 23,800 jobs will be lost.
* In 2012, if all goes well, maybe 16,100 jobs will be created.
This totals 273,268 or 15.4 percent, lost jobs in just four years. If the 2012 jobs created prediction is accurate, only 1 percent of the 2007 total jobs will return during that year.
In January, Nevada's 13 percent unemployment rate was second only to Michigan's 14.3 percent.
In December 2009, the official duration of a Nevada unemployment claim was 17.7 weeks. This statistic, however, is only for those covered in the Unemployment Insurance system. Including those not receiving unemployment payments, the realistic length of unemployment was probably 30-plus weeks.
In June 2006, Nevada had 148,800 construction jobs, which represented 11.5 percent of all jobs in the state. Nationally, the percentage was 5.7 percent. In Nevada in December 2009, it was 77,200 or 6.7 percent compared with the national average of 4.4 percent. We are still over-dependent on construction jobs at a time when construction is stopped.
Inflation-adjusted wages in Nevada have been stagnant for over 30 years.
Nevada's recovery from downturns has taken longer with each recession. If this trend continues, the time to get back to the 1,538,000 jobs could easily be 2018 or beyond and that assumes no additional downturns between now and then.
Government job cuts will continue to compound our problems because so many individuals in the local area have government jobs of all types. Such job cuts and short weeks will limit some services and perhaps delay certain job-creation steps.
What will our Legislature do to help or hurt this problem? Waiting until the next 120-day legislative session will not offer much time for systemic changes.
A modest decline in state population is occurring.
How will we know when a recovery begins? The basic economic indictors will show upturns. These would be: sales tax revenue up; retail sales up; gaming revenue up; home sales up; new hires up.
When the recovery occurs, it will not be back to the same as it was. Some jobs will be lost forever. With the massive commercial and housing overbuilding of the past, there will be an extremely slow re-launching of construction. Online commerce will continue to replace some retail sectors, and fewer employees will be needed.
Green jobs have not yet been fully defined. It is too early to determine how many permanent jobs will be created.
Health care continues to be above-average in job creation. However, these positions need skill sets not easily transferred from other industries, and colleges are at capacity with waiting lists in these fields.
More training is needed by all. Yesterday's skills are out of favor. Everyone must learn more and more. There is a growth in small private, flexible colleges offering specific skill sets. Some of these schools will create at least part-time jobs.
Visits to Nevada are not down substantially but those who visit are spending less and sometimes substantially less. We must rebuild gaming and tourism as fast as possible because that is our base. At the same time, we must continue to urge creation of other sector jobs.
Nevadaworks' workforce survey highlights the exceptional workforce that is here and wants to stay here. Now is the time to spread the word about northern Nevada.
A word about generations in the workforce: Most of the Traditionalists are out of the job market. Older Boomers who never wanted to retire are hanging on if possible. Those who planned on retiring are trying to decide when would be a good time to leave the job market. GenXers and Millennials are getting life lessons. Their career cockiness has been replaced with reality. Some are back in school. Some are back home and some are hoping to keep whatever type of job they can. When this recovery is in full swing, the majority of the Millennials will be of working age. They will bring an adjusted attitude to their jobs and most probably higher skill levels.
Fear is a four letter word that is hindering our recovery. Those who can safely spend are afraid of their future. Those who think they might lose their jobs are saving more. Concern over mortgages even when they are normal brings on more fear. Fear of the unknown is bringing on caution. Fear is causing some to leave the state even when their jobs are not at risk. Others want to be wherever they feel is a more stable work environment.
We are so used to negative news that we don't celebrate the good. We expect bad. Let's change that. We will not return to yesterday. Plan, prepare, execute.
Start using the negative numbers in a positive way. Hire the above average individuals currently available. Get a larger online presence if possible. Use social networking to spread the word that now is a great time to have a business presence in Nevada. Take business clients to lunch and dinner. Conduct final job candidate interviews over a meal.
Be proactive. Don't let others talk for you. Take a chance. Seek new product lines. Show current customers they are appreciated. What works elsewhere? Bring it here. Borrow good ideas for use here. Form groups of like minded individuals. Let current employees know when you appreciate their efforts.
No one thing will work by itself, but in combination with other such steps, positive results will occur!
Tom Fitzgerald is chief executive officer of Nevadaworks. Contact him through www.nevadaworks.com.
